På nuværende tidspunkt er den europæiske solcellefremstillingsindustri på vej mod foryngelse. John Lindahl,-generalsekretær for European Solar Manufacturing Council, analyserede de udfordringer og muligheder, som europæiske solcelleproducenter står over for, og undersøgte, hvordan man opstiller et sæt mål for en komplet solcelleindustrikæde på 100 GW inden 2030. .
In 2021, Meyer Burger's 400MW solar module line was officially launched. By 2022, its battery line will expand to 1.4GW, and its module line will expand to 1GW. The final annual production target is 5GW.
While Europe remains one of the world's largest PV installation markets, its once-booming PV manufacturing industry was stalled about a decade ago by rapidly rising Asian rivals.
In 2021, the EU reached an agreement on climate targets to cut net carbon emissions by 55 percent by 2030. At the same time, with the continuous improvement of the level of solar energy utilization and the increasingly prominent issue of sustainable development, in the past few years, the call for reviving the EU's photovoltaic manufacturing capacity has become more and more loud. Perhaps, 2022 will give the answer.
In April last year, the European Solar Manufacturing Council (ESMC) said that at least 75 percent of Europe's PV demand should be produced in Europe. However, according to data released by the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems (ISE) in its 2021 Photovoltaic Report, although European polysilicon production capacity is 22.1GW in 2020, solar wafer production capacity is only 1.25GW, and solar cell production capacity is only 1.25GW. It is 650MW, and the solar module capacity is 6.75GW. Therefore, there is still a long way to go to realize the revival of the EU photovoltaic manufacturing industry.
Nedenfor er en analyse af Johan Lindahl, generalsekretær for European Solar Manufacturing Council ESMC, om den aktuelle tilstand af PV-udvikling i Europa, udfordringerne og mulighederne, som PV-producenter står over for, og identificerede planer for at opnå GW--skalakapacitet.
1. Udfordring:
1) China's intangible and extensive grants, loans, credits and tax support;
2) Indlysende og omfattende bevillingsstøtte fra USA og Indien;
3) Udbredelsen af EU's fotovoltaiske innovationsteknologi på det lokale marked er begrænset, og intellektuelle ejendomsrettigheder og patenter er ikke ordentligt beskyttet på EU's eksterne marked;
4) Europæiske solcelleproduktions- og arbejdsstandarder er strenge, men der er ingen tilsvarende standard på EU's eksterne marked;
5) Potentielt højere PV-modulpriser og forsyningskædeproblemer er et strukturelt problem.
2. Muligheder:
1) European PV industry production becomes cost-competitive. The price difference between European and Asian products has narrowed due to the current significant increase in production and shipping costs and delivery times for Asian products. For European PV manufacturing to be price-competitive, two conditions must exist, namely GW-scale manufacturing capacity; and a complete European manufacturing value chain. The EU needs to keep the value chain intact to meet at least part of our needs that don't need to be imported, despite the fact that imports are of course still an important factor.
2) Europa er stadig førende inden for PV-teknologisk innovation, men kun hvis den industrielle produktionsbase stadig eksisterer. Den traditionelle solcelle-aluminium-bagoverfladeteknologi (Al BSF) har en konverteringseffektivitet på 18-22 procent og er i øjeblikket ved at blive erstattet af PERC-teknologi og dens udviklingsteknologi, som gør det muligt for solcelleeffektiviteten at nå 20{{6} }24 procent, mens produktionslinjens opgradering kostede Moderat. Baseret på heterojunction (HJT) eller TOPCon-teknologi vil tredje generation af høj-højeffektive solceller opnå 23-26 procent effektivitet. På nuværende tidspunkt er dets produktionsomkostninger de samme som for PERC-celler, begge på 20-30 cents/Wp. Højeffektive batterier giver mulighed for konkurrencedygtige eller endnu lavere omkostninger ved elproduktion selv med højere komponentpriser. I fremtiden kan der være yderligere teknologiske forbedringer, såsom perovskit-silicium tandemceller med effektivitet på over 30 procent. Disse teknologiske fremskridt er stadig førende i Europa og baner vejen for den globale udbredelse af terawatt-skala PV.
3) Den langsigtede-udviklingspolitiske ramme for vedvarende energi i Europa er blevet etableret. Den europæiske grønne aftale og bølgen af innovation har skabt tillid hos investorer og udviklere.
4) The emergence of sustainable, carbon-neutral eco-design concepts and specific standards under consideration, including recently announced measures to address distortions in foreign subsidies in the EU market, are the driving force behind the EU's transition to a green and innovative energy system and economy. Growing customer concerns about carbon footprints will have a structural impact on PV manufacturing. Compared to current Asian products, using PV modules produced in Europe reduces carbon consumption, avoids long-distance transportation, and better eco-design parameters. The importance of this aspect will increase over the next few years.
5) Nye implementeringsmetoder, der inkorporerer fotovoltaiske koncepter i integrerede systemer, gør det muligt for europæisk solcelleproduktion at realisere en potentiel konkurrencefordel. Forskellige innovative løsninger udvikles og vokser hurtigt på forskellige områder, herunder Building plus Photovoltaic (BIPV), Vehicle plus Photovoltaic (VIPV), Floating Body plus Photovoltaic (FPV) og Agriculture plus Photovoltaic (APV). Europæiske PV-producenter kan drage fordel af specifikke europæiske og lokale behov, da integrerede systemer kræver mere individualiserede løsninger.
3. Andelen af den globale produktionskapacitet i den europæiske solcelleindustri i hvert led i industrikæden i 2020 er som følger:
1. 11 procent af den globale PV-siliciumproduktion: 22,1 GW kapacitet (Elkem og Wacker)
2. 1 procent af den globale produktion af PV silicium solwafers: 1,25 GW kapacitet (Norsun, Norwegian Crystals og EDF Photowatt)
3. 0,4 procent af den globale produktion af fotovoltaiske siliciumceller: 0,65 GW kapacitet (Solitek/Valoe, Enel, Ecosolifer)
4. 3 procent af den globale modulproduktion: 6,75 GW kapacitet (29 forskellige virksomheder)
5. 25 procent af inverterens output.
In the above scenario, Europe's installed PV capacity in 2020 accounts for 15 percent of the global total. Therefore, if Europe wants to become self-reliant, it needs to step up the production of wafers, cells and modules.
Currently, Europe has a very negative trade deficit in photovoltaic cells and modules. The table below shows the total value of import and export trade of photosensitive semiconductor devices (including photovoltaic cells assembled into modules or panels) and light-emitting diodes in Europe.
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